Inner Mongolia has been designated as a red card zone for wind power construction, and industry insiders indicate that the warning areas will continue to increase.
2018-09-11
Under the persistent issue of wind abandonment and power restrictions, Inner Mongolia, as one of the regions with the richest wind resources in the country, has also been included in the "red alert zone" list.
On February 22, the National Energy Administration announced the 2017 annual wind power investment monitoring and warning results. As early as July 21 last year, the national wind power investment monitoring and warning results for 2016 in five provinces including Jilin were red alerts, and this time Inner Mongolia has been added as a "new face." This means that the provinces (regions) under red alert are not allowed to approve the construction of new wind power projects.
It is worth noting that the aforementioned six provinces and regions are the most concentrated areas for wind power investment in the country, with a large amount of capital deployed in wind power projects in these popular areas in recent years. Zhuochuang Information analyst Feng Haicheng told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that these measures will lead wind power companies to reduce or even stop investments in red alert areas, shifting their investments to wind energy resources in the central and southern regions. In Feng Haicheng's view, this will affect the income and operations of related enterprises in the warning areas and will also force companies to transform.
An industry insider who has been paying attention to wind power for a long time told reporters that this may have a certain impact on some companies that have projects invested in advance in the warning areas, and may also lead some companies to shift to the south.
● Shift in Investment Direction
On February 22, the National Energy Administration released the 2017 annual wind power investment monitoring and warning results. Compared to the five provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang announced in July last year, Inner Mongolia has become a new face in the red alert area for wind power development and construction.
According to the official website of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government, Inner Mongolia has 50% of the national wind energy resources. As of 2015, the grid-connected scale of wind power reached 24.25 million kilowatts, accounting for about one-fifth of the national total grid-connected scale of wind power, ranking first in the country. The "Daily Economic News" reporter found from the data on the National Energy Administration's official website that the wind abandonment rates in Inner Mongolia for 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 9%, 18%, and 21%, respectively, ranking fourth in the country this year. In the first half of 2016, the wind abandonment rate in Inner Mongolia reached 30%.
Although the wind abandonment rate has been rising year by year, Inner Mongolia added a grid-connected capacity of 1.32 million kilowatts in 2016, ranking second in the country. In terms of abandoned electricity, Inner Mongolia's abandoned wind power generation in 2006 was 12.4 billion kilowatt-hours, ranking second in the country.
In addition, based on the National Energy Administration's sorting of the six provinces and regions that entered the red alert list this time, the reporter found that, except for Jilin, where the wind abandonment rate has slightly decreased year-on-year, the other five provinces and regions have seen varying degrees of increase in both wind abandonment rates and abandoned wind power generation.
According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, provinces and regions under red alert are not allowed to approve the construction of new wind power projects and must take effective measures to focus on solving the wind abandonment problem. Power grid companies are not allowed to accept new grid connection applications for wind power projects in provinces and regions under red alert (including projects under construction, approved, and included in planning), and dispatched agencies will no longer issue new power generation business licenses for newly built wind power projects in provinces and regions under red alert.
A renewable energy analyst from a brokerage firm told reporters that the red alert set by the National Energy Administration reflects a clear goal of reducing investment plans in that region. In addition, several industry insiders told reporters that the red alert areas will also increase in the northwest and northeast regions in the future.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Feng Haicheng told reporters that these measures will lead wind power companies to reduce or even stop investments in red alert areas, shifting their investments to wind energy resources in the central and southern regions. Since the main power consumption in our country is in the central and coastal areas, shifting wind power investment to these areas can also achieve the principle of "near access and local consumption" proposed in the 13th Five-Year Plan, which is more conducive to supply-demand balance and full utilization of wind energy resources.
● Forcing Enterprises to Transform
The National Energy Administration's official website shows that the national abandoned wind power generation in 2016 was 49.7 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 15.8 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 33.9 billion kilowatt-hours in 2015.
In the view of energy analysts from brokerage firms, the phenomenon of wind abandonment and electricity abandonment in 2017 has improved slightly, but there has been no fundamental change. In the future, it will continue to improve through external investment, internal consumption, and regional complementarity. He also summarized this process as "it should be an inevitable trend, and the process is a relatively painful one."
In addition, this industry insider who has been paying attention to wind power for a long time told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the phenomenon of wind abandonment and electricity abandonment has improved somewhat, but the trend of improvement does not necessarily manifest as better performance, and there are specific consumption issues such as internal replacement between wind power and thermal power. On the other hand, it has become very difficult to recover fixed costs, and at most, it will cover variable costs.
It is worth noting that the National Energy Administration also proposed in the aforementioned warning results to suspend the construction of wind power projects in the Xinjiang Zhundong, Turpan Baili Wind Area, and Jiuquan Phase II second batch, with the already operational or under construction transmission channels being primarily used to consume existing wind power projects.
When it comes to the suspension of construction, Feng Haicheng believes that the suspension of projects will reduce resource waste caused by wind and solar abandonment and the financial pressure caused by subsidies; on the other hand, the suspension of projects will also increase local employment pressure and will render the manpower and material resources invested in the early stage worthless. For project construction companies and equipment manufacturing companies, this will affect the income of enterprises, and on the other hand, it will also force enterprises to transform and promote innovation, actively seeking new ways of survival.
In the view of renewable energy analysts from brokerage firms, due to the significant power restriction pressure faced by certain areas in the northwest and northeast, if only the initial phase is "stopped," although there is some investment, since no specific "action" has been taken, this may, in a sense, reduce the losses of enterprises; otherwise, they will face the risk of low returns on subsequent investments.
An insider in the wind power industry told reporters that the suspension of construction will have a certain impact on some companies that have already invested in projects waiting for indicators, facing issues such as early investment, regional relationship reconstruction, talent loss, and resource cultivation. However, most companies will have their own strategic judgments and will layout in the southern and eastern regions in advance. Offshore wind power has significant advantages. In addition, the industrial chain in the east is also gradually improving.
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