Inner Mongolia has been designated as a red card zone for wind power construction, and industry insiders indicate that the warning areas will continue to increase.

2018-09-11


the wind power sector has been concentrated. Under the persistent issue of wind abandonment and power restrictions, Inner Mongolia, one of the regions with the richest wind resources in the country, has also been included in the "red alert zone" list. On February 22, the National Energy Administration announced the wind power investment monitoring and early warning results for 2017. As early as July 21 of last year, the wind power investment monitoring and early warning results for 2016 in five provinces, including Jilin, were marked as red alert, and this time Inner Mongolia has been added as a "new face." This means that the provinces (regions) under red alert are not allowed to approve the construction of new wind power projects. It is worth noting that these six provinces and regions are the most concentrated areas for wind power investment in the country, where a large amount of capital has been invested in recent years.

Under the persistent issue of wind abandonment and power restrictions, Inner Mongolia, as one of the regions with the richest wind resources in the country, has also been included in the "red alert zone" list.

On February 22, the National Energy Administration announced the 2017 annual wind power investment monitoring and warning results. As early as July 21 last year, the national wind power investment monitoring and warning results for 2016 in five provinces including Jilin were red alerts, and this time Inner Mongolia has been added as a "new face." This means that the provinces (regions) under red alert are not allowed to approve the construction of new wind power projects.

It is worth noting that the aforementioned six provinces and regions are the most concentrated areas for wind power investment in the country, with a large amount of capital deployed in wind power projects in these popular areas in recent years. Zhuochuang Information analyst Feng Haicheng told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that these measures will lead wind power companies to reduce or even stop investments in red alert areas, shifting their investments to wind energy resources in the central and southern regions. In Feng Haicheng's view, this will affect the income and operations of related enterprises in the warning areas and will also force companies to transform.

An industry insider who has been paying attention to wind power for a long time told reporters that this may have a certain impact on some companies that have projects invested in advance in the warning areas, and may also lead some companies to shift to the south.

 

● Shift in Investment Direction

 

On February 22, the National Energy Administration released the 2017 annual wind power investment monitoring and warning results. Compared to the five provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang announced in July last year, Inner Mongolia has become a new face in the red alert area for wind power development and construction.

According to the official website of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government, Inner Mongolia has 50% of the national wind energy resources. As of 2015, the grid-connected scale of wind power reached 24.25 million kilowatts, accounting for about one-fifth of the national total grid-connected scale of wind power, ranking first in the country. The "Daily Economic News" reporter found from the data on the National Energy Administration's official website that the wind abandonment rates in Inner Mongolia for 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 9%, 18%, and 21%, respectively, ranking fourth in the country this year. In the first half of 2016, the wind abandonment rate in Inner Mongolia reached 30%.

Although the wind abandonment rate has been rising year by year, Inner Mongolia added a grid-connected capacity of 1.32 million kilowatts in 2016, ranking second in the country. In terms of abandoned electricity, Inner Mongolia's abandoned wind power generation in 2006 was 12.4 billion kilowatt-hours, ranking second in the country.

In addition, based on the National Energy Administration's sorting of the six provinces and regions that entered the red alert list this time, the reporter found that, except for Jilin, where the wind abandonment rate has slightly decreased year-on-year, the other five provinces and regions have seen varying degrees of increase in both wind abandonment rates and abandoned wind power generation.

According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, provinces and regions under red alert are not allowed to approve the construction of new wind power projects and must take effective measures to focus on solving the wind abandonment problem. Power grid companies are not allowed to accept new grid connection applications for wind power projects in provinces and regions under red alert (including projects under construction, approved, and included in planning), and dispatched agencies will no longer issue new power generation business licenses for newly built wind power projects in provinces and regions under red alert.

A renewable energy analyst from a brokerage firm told reporters that the red alert set by the National Energy Administration reflects a clear goal of reducing investment plans in that region. In addition, several industry insiders told reporters that the red alert areas will also increase in the northwest and northeast regions in the future.

Zhuochuang Information analyst Feng Haicheng told reporters that these measures will lead wind power companies to reduce or even stop investments in red alert areas, shifting their investments to wind energy resources in the central and southern regions. Since the main power consumption in our country is in the central and coastal areas, shifting wind power investment to these areas can also achieve the principle of "near access and local consumption" proposed in the 13th Five-Year Plan, which is more conducive to supply-demand balance and full utilization of wind energy resources.

 

● Forcing Enterprises to Transform

 

The National Energy Administration's official website shows that the national abandoned wind power generation in 2016 was 49.7 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 15.8 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 33.9 billion kilowatt-hours in 2015.

In the view of energy analysts from brokerage firms, the phenomenon of wind abandonment and electricity abandonment in 2017 has improved slightly, but there has been no fundamental change. In the future, it will continue to improve through external investment, internal consumption, and regional complementarity. He also summarized this process as "it should be an inevitable trend, and the process is a relatively painful one."

In addition, this industry insider who has been paying attention to wind power for a long time told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the phenomenon of wind abandonment and electricity abandonment has improved somewhat, but the trend of improvement does not necessarily manifest as better performance, and there are specific consumption issues such as internal replacement between wind power and thermal power. On the other hand, it has become very difficult to recover fixed costs, and at most, it will cover variable costs.

It is worth noting that the National Energy Administration also proposed in the aforementioned warning results to suspend the construction of wind power projects in the Xinjiang Zhundong, Turpan Baili Wind Area, and Jiuquan Phase II second batch, with the already operational or under construction transmission channels being primarily used to consume existing wind power projects.

When it comes to the suspension of construction, Feng Haicheng believes that the suspension of projects will reduce resource waste caused by wind and solar abandonment and the financial pressure caused by subsidies; on the other hand, the suspension of projects will also increase local employment pressure and will render the manpower and material resources invested in the early stage worthless. For project construction companies and equipment manufacturing companies, this will affect the income of enterprises, and on the other hand, it will also force enterprises to transform and promote innovation, actively seeking new ways of survival.

In the view of renewable energy analysts from brokerage firms, due to the significant power restriction pressure faced by certain areas in the northwest and northeast, if only the initial phase is "stopped," although there is some investment, since no specific "action" has been taken, this may, in a sense, reduce the losses of enterprises; otherwise, they will face the risk of low returns on subsequent investments.

An insider in the wind power industry told reporters that the suspension of construction will have a certain impact on some companies that have already invested in projects waiting for indicators, facing issues such as early investment, regional relationship reconstruction, talent loss, and resource cultivation. However, most companies will have their own strategic judgments and will layout in the southern and eastern regions in advance. Offshore wind power has significant advantages. In addition, the industrial chain in the east is also gradually improving.

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The planning and design of material distribution for lean production lines in logistics management refers to the logistics operations that deliver materials from suppliers or distribution centers to the production lines in workshops. 1: Focus Points and Analytical Tools For the analysis of production line distribution logistics, the business model should be determined based on demand, as the business model dictates the operational methods. 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By organizing the above demands for distribution logistics operations on the production line, we find that if unit design and line-side planning are adopted, they can effectively address the demands in items 3 and 4; items 1 and 2 are a contradictory unity, which can be described comprehensively as how to meet continuous production with minimal inventory. That is: to produce the necessary products only in the required quantities at the necessary times (delivered). The demand is clear, and it is necessary to choose appropriate dimensions to describe logistics for further analysis, which can be categorized in many ways. For example: by logistics destination, it can be divided into direct supply mode and distribution center mode; by the initiator of the logistics operation process, it can be divided into supply logistics, manufacturing logistics, and distribution logistics; by the initiator providing logistics services, it can be divided into first-party logistics, second-party logistics, and third-party logistics; by the function of logistics, it can be divided into supply logistics, sales logistics, production logistics, reverse logistics, recycling logistics, waste logistics, etc. From which angle can we resolve the contradiction of meeting production needs with the lowest inventory? Through the description of the demands for production line distribution logistics operations, it is not difficult to see that for specific components, they can be described in two dimensions: time (when necessary) and quantity (necessary quantity). Therefore, using time and quantity as two dimensions to describe production line distribution logistics operations is undoubtedly the most appropriate. 3: Different Replenishment Models and Their Principles ① Kanban: The Kanban referred to here is the receiving Kanban, not the production instruction Kanban. Kanban is an external label for unitized packaging, carrying relevant information about varieties, unitized packaging quantities, storage locations, upstream or suppliers, downstream, etc. Therefore, essentially, Kanban is a visual representation of replenishment information and a means of carrying replenishment information. ② Two-bin or Three-bin Method: This replenishment model is similar to the ordering signal sent out after accumulating a certain quantity of Kanban within the process, both belonging to a quantitative and irregular ordering model, except that the material box itself replaces the Kanban as the carrier of delivery information, i.e., the ordering signal. Its applicable range is similar to Kanban, leaning more towards smaller, general-purpose parts. ③ Light Signal: The light signal mentioned here specifically refers to the light signal mode needed for logistics distribution, excluding quality issues of production line operation, equipment maintenance, etc. Relatively speaking, the information transmission speed of the light signal is faster than that of the Kanban, so under the same operational environment, the ordering point set by the light signal is lower than that of the Kanban, meaning that lower inventory can meet production needs, but at the same time, logistics costs, especially hardware investment, are higher, requiring consideration of return on investment. ④ Sorting Operations: Sorting operations are a replenishment model where suppliers produce, load, and transport in the same order according to the varieties and quantities required by customer orders. Sorting operations can achieve synchronous production with customers, significantly reduce the number of unitized packages, decrease work-in-progress inventory, and eliminate unnecessary transshipment operations. The planning for sorting operations is mostly done through a combination of long-term forecasting and rolling plans: long-term forecasting helps suppliers prepare materials, while rolling plans allow suppliers to produce only the products needed by customers, maximizing inventory reduction and benefiting the overall reduction of supply chain costs. ⑤ Logistics Basket (Warenkorb): The logistics basket, also known as the kit mode (Kittoone), is a replenishment model that arranges certain parts according to the order of production line vehicle types, placing them in a unitized package or logistics cart, running synchronously with the production line. It is widely used in the automotive industry, especially for components like dashboard assemblies and window lift assemblies. The logistics basket can be seen as a manifestation of sorting operations. (1) The logistics basket model is suitable for smaller components, while sorting operations are suitable for larger components. (2) The logistics basket contains a variety of components, while sorting operations typically involve a single type of component. (3) The components in the logistics basket have an assembly relationship, while sorting operations only involve one type of component, thus not having assembly relationship issues. (4) The logistics basket model involves parallel feeding, moving with the production line, while sorting operations involve vertical feeding, with materials remaining stationary relative to the production line. Through the analysis of the principles and characteristics of the five replenishment models, we can select the appropriate replenishment model for specific components and choose the corresponding handling methods. 4: Choosing Corresponding Handling Methods ① External Ordering Kanban belongs to a periodic and irregular ordering model, suitable for most general-purpose components. The handling methods for Kanban can include the following: Milk Run, transfer handling, and dedicated vehicle methods. The so-called Milk Run refers to: different suppliers being responsible for transporting a specified quantity of goods at different times using the same vehicle. The so-called dedicated vehicle handling means that a vehicle is used for transportation according to customer requirements within a factory, ensuring continuous transportation without increasing handling costs. In short, it is a dedicated vehicle for a specific purpose. ② In-process Kanban and the two-bin method both belong to quantitative and irregular ordering models, with the two-bin method being more suitable for smaller components. From the perspective of production line distribution, adopting the "Toyota's piggyback transport" (also known as group transport) between preceding and succeeding processes can minimize inventory due to frequent handling and short delivery cycles; however, for actual logistics operations, it is still preferable to have a certain delivery interval to facilitate the organization of logistics operations. Therefore, when delivering to the production line, different varieties of components will be combined and delivered regularly. If we consider the production line as a customer and the storage locations for different varieties of materials as different suppliers, it can also be seen as a Milk Run from the distribution center to the production line. ③ The light signal method belongs to a quantitative and irregular replenishment model, and due to higher logistics costs, it is suitable for high-value, small-volume components. The handling methods are similar to those of in-process Kanban and the two-bin method, mostly adopting piggyback transport methods. ④ Sorting operations are suitable for larger components with more characteristics, arranged in unitized packaging in the same order as production line requirements, generally adopting direct delivery to workstations. They can also be sorted at the distribution center before being delivered to the production line. ⑤ The logistics basket is suitable for smaller components that have a primary assembly relationship, also arranged in the same order as production line requirements, combined in specially designed workstation tools or material carts. Since the sorting of logistics baskets is mostly done by customers or third parties, the components are usually first transported to the logistics center for secondary sorting, and then through workstation tools or logistics carts, they operate in conjunction with the production line to improve assembly efficiency.

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